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NBA PORTAL / RESEARCH DESK

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NBA PORTAL / RESEARCH DESK

Projection accuracy.

2026-27 · Archived forecasts compared with completed NBA results.

Projection results
Model proj_mc_v1 Stored player-distribution model evaluated; forecasts are not rebuilt here.
Completed games 71 Games in this season with both final team scores recorded.
Evaluated player-games 1,176 Eligible pregame player forecasts with usable actual minutes.
Forecasts unavailable 420 Player-game rows with no eligible forecast before tipoff.

What this report measures: completed-game box scores compared with the latest saved proj_mc_v1 distribution means captured before scheduled tipoff. Pregame snapshots are retained separately from rebuildable current projections; legacy distributions without a snapshot qualify only when both their creation and last-update timestamps predate tipoff. This is an out-of-sample record of saved forecasts—not a recalculation, guarantee, or claim of betting profit. Exclusions: 0 box-score rows without a usable tipoff, 420 rows without an eligible forecast, and 0 stat observations with a missing forecast or actual value.

Accuracy at a glance

Each stat has its own scale and units. Bars compare role-group MAE; the line shows how that stat’s daily MAE changes through the season.

MIN forecast error

MAE measured in minutes. Lower is closer.

By projected-minute role

Rotation 5.80 n=528
Starter 5.12 n=535
Bench 7.06 n=113

Daily trend lower is closer

Oct 21: MAE 6.65, n=174 Oct 22: MAE 3.90, n=32 Oct 23: MAE 6.16, n=199 Oct 24: MAE 5.33, n=126 Oct 25: MAE 6.24, n=115 Oct 26: MAE 5.38, n=172 Oct 27: MAE 5.50, n=79 Oct 28: MAE 4.90, n=227 Oct 29: MAE 4.47, n=52
Oct 21Oct 29

PTS forecast error

MAE measured in points. Lower is closer.

By projected-minute role

Rotation 4.88 n=528
Starter 6.32 n=535
Bench 3.90 n=113

Daily trend lower is closer

Oct 21: MAE 5.89, n=174 Oct 22: MAE 5.15, n=32 Oct 23: MAE 5.62, n=199 Oct 24: MAE 5.31, n=126 Oct 25: MAE 5.52, n=115 Oct 26: MAE 4.63, n=172 Oct 27: MAE 5.32, n=79 Oct 28: MAE 5.39, n=227 Oct 29: MAE 6.71, n=52
Oct 21Oct 29

REB forecast error

MAE measured in rebounds. Lower is closer.

By projected-minute role

Rotation 1.98 n=528
Starter 2.45 n=535
Bench 2.00 n=113

Daily trend lower is closer

Oct 21: MAE 2.10, n=174 Oct 22: MAE 2.43, n=32 Oct 23: MAE 2.16, n=199 Oct 24: MAE 2.01, n=126 Oct 25: MAE 2.38, n=115 Oct 26: MAE 2.39, n=172 Oct 27: MAE 1.76, n=79 Oct 28: MAE 2.21, n=227 Oct 29: MAE 2.56, n=52
Oct 21Oct 29

AST forecast error

MAE measured in assists. Lower is closer.

By projected-minute role

Rotation 1.43 n=528
Starter 1.88 n=535
Bench 1.03 n=113

Daily trend lower is closer

Oct 21: MAE 1.74, n=174 Oct 22: MAE 2.22, n=32 Oct 23: MAE 1.51, n=199 Oct 24: MAE 1.45, n=126 Oct 25: MAE 1.71, n=115 Oct 26: MAE 1.40, n=172 Oct 27: MAE 1.39, n=79 Oct 28: MAE 1.66, n=227 Oct 29: MAE 1.84, n=52
Oct 21Oct 29

Performance by projected role

Roles are assigned from forecast minutes—not actual minutes—so each group is defined using information available in the saved forecast.

  • RotationMIN n=528

    StatSamplesMAEBias
    MIN 528 5.80 -2.10
    PTS 528 4.88 -1.35
    REB 528 1.98 -0.36
    AST 528 1.43 -0.30

  • StarterMIN n=535

    StatSamplesMAEBias
    MIN 535 5.12 -2.60
    PTS 535 6.32 -1.22
    REB 535 2.45 -0.51
    AST 535 1.88 -0.47

  • BenchMIN n=113

    StatSamplesMAEBias
    MIN 113 7.06 +2.50
    PTS 113 3.90 +1.11
    REB 113 2.00 +0.51
    AST 113 1.03 +0.10

Date-by-date results

MAE by game date for every stat. Sample counts are shown beside each value; dates with no eligible data are omitted.

Game dateMIN MAE · nPTS MAE · nREB MAE · nAST MAE · n
Oct 21, 20266.65 · n=1745.89 · n=1742.10 · n=1741.74 · n=174
Oct 22, 20263.90 · n=325.15 · n=322.43 · n=322.22 · n=32
Oct 23, 20266.16 · n=1995.62 · n=1992.16 · n=1991.51 · n=199
Oct 24, 20265.33 · n=1265.31 · n=1262.01 · n=1261.45 · n=126
Oct 25, 20266.24 · n=1155.52 · n=1152.38 · n=1151.71 · n=115
Oct 26, 20265.38 · n=1724.63 · n=1722.39 · n=1721.40 · n=172
Oct 27, 20265.50 · n=795.32 · n=791.76 · n=791.39 · n=79
Oct 28, 20264.90 · n=2275.39 · n=2272.21 · n=2271.66 · n=227
Oct 29, 20264.47 · n=526.71 · n=522.56 · n=521.84 · n=52
How to read the metrics and exclusions

MAE (mean absolute error): average distance between forecast and actual, ignoring direction. Lower is closer; units are minutes, points, rebounds, or assists.

Bias: average actual minus forecast. Positive means the forecast was low on average; negative means it was high. Near zero does not mean individual forecasts were accurate.

Samples (n): count of player-game observations with both an eligible forecast mean and an actual value for that stat. Each stat can have a different count.

Starter / Rotation / Bench: grouped using pregame projected minutes: at least 28; 15 to under 28; under 15. This is a forecast-minute cohort, not an official roster designation.

Missing tipoff: completed box-score rows for games without a stored start time or scheduled time, so forecast timing cannot be checked.

Missing/non-pregame forecast: no matching current-model distribution, or its creation/update time is at or after tipoff.

Missing fields: forecast or actual stat was blank/invalid; that stat observation is excluded rather than treated as zero.

Date trend: each point summarizes the eligible player-games on that game date. Dates without any usable observations do not appear.